The Tomago deal is a generation deal. It underpins nearly 3 gigawatts of new build

What was actually committed

Two things in that table are worth separating. The NSW contribution is capped and does not start until 2029, which is the year after the expiry that forced the negotiation. And the governments say the arrangements ensure revenue comes back to the federal government when aluminium prices are high, so this is structured with an upside rather than as a straight subsidy. How that revenue share is calculated is not in the release, and it is the first thing worth asking for.

The energy numbers, which are the reason this masthead is writing it up

The release makes three claims about the grid rather than about the smelter.

Nearly 3 gigawatts of new renewable generation and firming. That is the figure to hold on to. For scale on this beat: it is roughly the same order as the generation capacity the Hunter has been arguing about across every transmission and battery story we have run. The release does not say where it will be built, who builds it, or when, and anyone quoting the 3 GW should say so.

More than 10 per cent of the NSW grid. The governments describe the deal as accelerating decarbonisation of that share, which is a statement about how much of the state's electricity Tomago consumes. It is why a single customer's supply contract is a system-wide question.

A demand-response programme. The $100 million is for decarbonisation activities and an innovative demand-response program to support the NSW grid, and the stated ambition is to position the Tomago smelter as the international leader in electricity demand response and flexibility services. That is the part with the longest reach. A smelter that can move its load in response to system conditions is, in grid terms, equivalent to building something: it does work that would otherwise need firming capacity. No target, no megawatt figure and no timetable for it appears in the release.

The date that forced it

The release states that Tomago will continue operating beyond the expiry of its current electricity supply contract on 31 December 2028. That expiry is the whole reason there was a negotiation, and it is why the NSW money starts in 2029. Every element above is arranged around a single contract end date, which is a useful thing to know when the next large industrial supply contract in this state comes up.

What the release does not say

Quite a lot, and it is worth listing rather than filling in. There is no breakdown of the $2.5 billion between the two governments beyond the NSW cap. There is no schedule for the Commonwealth share. The nearly 3 GW is not located, costed or dated, and nothing says whether it is new projects or projects already in the pipeline being underwritten. The demand-response programme has no capacity figure. And the mechanism for the revenue share when aluminium prices are high is described in a sentence.

Our view, labelled as such: none of that makes the announcement soft. A joint commitment of this size with a price-linked return is a more careful instrument than the flat electricity subsidies that have kept smelters running elsewhere. But the energy content of this deal is currently a set of headline figures without a delivery document behind them, and the useful reporting from here is finding that document rather than restating the press release.

What to watch

Where the nearly 3 GW is built and under what contracts, which is the single biggest question this announcement leaves open and the one that lands in this region. Any published detail of the demand-response programme, particularly a megawatt figure. The Commonwealth's own funding schedule. And 31 December 2028 itself, now the most consequential date on the NSW industrial energy calendar.

The documents

• Prime Minister of Australia, NSW Premier and ministers, $2.5 billion investment in the Hunter's future, joint media release, Thursday 13 August 2026, read 25 August 2026. pm.gov.au. Every figure and quotation above: the $2.5 billion joint contribution; the NSW cap of $1.225 billion over 10 years from 2029; Tomago's at least $1.1 billion including $100 million for decarbonisation and the demand-response programme; the nearly 3 gigawatts of new renewable generation and firming; the more than 10 per cent of the NSW grid; the ambition to make Tomago the international leader in demand response and flexibility services; the 31 December 2028 contract expiry; that Tomago is Australia's largest single electricity user; the revenue return to the federal government when aluminium prices are high; and the 1,000 direct and 5,000 indirect jobs.
• NSW Government, Certainty and security: More than 1,000 Hunter jobs saved with joint multi-billion investment, ministerial release, 13 August 2026, read 25 August 2026. nsw.gov.au. Corroborates the long-term renewable energy solution, operations beyond 2028 and the contract expiry, from the state side of the same announcement.
• Business Hunter, Business Hunter welcomes Tomago Aluminium deal, media release, 13 August 2026, read 25 August 2026. businesshunter.com. Cited only as that organisation's own attributed position, not as a source of fact about the deal.